Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-07-27 23.026969 25.123938 27.407891 30.094947 33.188790 36.662606 40.891170
2025-08-03 19.324834 22.072402 25.280696 29.358167 34.483598 40.828421 49.469399
2025-08-10 16.958045 20.036119 23.824325 28.940965 35.856979 45.180653 59.282873
2025-08-17 15.388595 18.679195 22.905240 28.912337 37.563536 50.175049 71.306582
2025-08-24 14.096641 17.478634 21.972378 28.633696 38.758550 54.579433 83.772647
2025-08-31 13.079418 16.508516 21.198003 28.406988 39.904805 59.067303 97.940802
2025-09-07 12.233322 15.675838 20.501498 28.159991 40.915427 63.490799 113.769182
2025-09-14 11.555008 15.008999 19.960355 28.052708 42.093920 68.449380 133.092678
2025-09-21 10.917324 14.343213 19.348176 27.737517 42.827436 72.703718 153.088158
2025-09-28 10.685969 14.246166 19.576425 28.813489 46.255062 83.465244 198.452774
2025-10-05 10.190866 13.715807 19.078634 28.580282 47.124796 88.830821 231.971889
2025-10-12 9.768744 13.266259 18.669146 28.448167 48.163649 94.932443 274.655693
2025-10-19 9.453255 12.969573 18.497157 28.752551 50.238284 104.645911 347.368918
2025-10-26 9.072174 12.547585 18.087217 28.571932 51.242787 111.930243 422.688280
2025-11-02 8.721910 12.153631 17.694762 28.381074 52.197791 119.552134 519.468807
2025-11-09 8.442982 11.857303 17.445762 28.440749 53.761769 129.910170 672.354172
2025-11-16 8.138818 11.502749 17.069963 28.204581 54.560118 138.145129 846.991470
2025-11-23 7.862472 11.179150 16.726308 27.997525 55.400704 147.083955 1092.088752
2025-11-30 7.602042 10.868731 16.385689 27.761743 56.129065 156.113983 1431.810093
2025-12-07 7.378796 10.609454 16.120446 27.659156 57.209944 167.432134 2001.057061
2025-12-14 7.142048 10.316457 15.775933 27.351445 57.663923 176.366924 2749.477906
2025-12-21 7.100226 10.351673 16.036945 28.405674 62.336614 210.095093 7067.452890
2025-12-28 6.897026 10.099770 15.744221 28.177483 63.073690 223.567831 13280.954046